If 2022 reminded us not to take underdogs lightly, 2023 warned us to consider them as serious threats, giving a glimpse of what a team can do at its full potential.
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19 January 2024, Friday
Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen had a phenomenal first half of the 2023-24 season. Currently on an unprecedented unbeaten streak of 27 games—the longest ever in the history of German Football—the Werkself sit top of the Bundesliga, 4 points clear of favorites Bayern Munich. Surprising, because Leverkusen had never won the league before, and shocking, because Bayern Munich not only scored the most goals by any team in Europe’s league but also have a red-hot Harry Kane with them. Besides, Bayern won the last 11 Bundesligas, whereas Leverkusen were battling relegation at one point last team.
Leverkusen aren’t alone. Girona, a Catalan club promoted to top-flight La Liga in 2017, currently sits atop the Spanish League, one point ahead of Real Madrid. Impressively, they dropped only 11 points after 20 league games, an achievement that previously only belonged to Real, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid. Equally impressive is Unai Emery’s Aston Villa, who broke into the Premier League Top 3 ahead of Arsenal and Tottenham after missing relegation by a whisker in 2020. Clearly, these clubs are doing something different.
Starting in the 2022 FIFA World Cup, football has seen several “upsets”—games where heavy favorites lose to minnows. Be it the eventual champions Argentina’s shock defeat to Saudi Arabia, “Atlas Lions” Morocco’s dream run to the semifinals, or Germany’s second consecutive exit in the group stages after a blow from Japan, the World Cup was a warning call to the big fishes not to take anyone lightly.
Upon closer inspection, it seems as if underdogs are more successful in capitalizing on their chances during crunch moments. Take, for example, Germany’s Group Stage loss to Japan. Germany held possession of the ball for 74% of the game. Japan, however, shone just when needed with two goals in key moments. Maybe it is pressure and expectations of fans that lead big teams to crumble in these crunch moments, especially after they've gotten used to playing in empty stadiums due to the pandemic. Or perhaps it is the same pressure and the appeal of the moment that causes the underdogs to thrive.
The rise of underdogs didn’t end with upsets, and now, we have previously out-of-favor teams sustaining their success throughout the season. To explain this, we have to dig into the sport's core: football is a team game.
Gone are the days when the best team on paper almost always ends up being the best team on the field. You can’t win trophies by having the biggest superstars in the world if your team’s chemistry isn’t par. That is why PSG had to battle it out till the last matchday to win the Ligue 1—which is, after all, a mere expectation from a side of such caliber—by a solitary point despite having the star trio of Messi, Neymar, and Mbappe. Everyone has to contribute equally, which is perfectly demonstrated by Leverkusen. Yes, they have Swiss stalwart Granit Xhaka at the heart of their midfield, but the spotlight is stolen by the young boots of Boniface, Hofmann, Frimpong, and Wirtz—all of whom have 5 or more assists this season.
Of late, the term “role clarity” has become a common occurrence in sports. To analyze this better, we have to shift our focus to cricket—a sport that has seen a rise in the number of superspecialized roles. After the Hardik Pandya-led Gujarat Titans assembled their first squad at the 2022 IPL Auction, everybody instantly wrote off the side, terming it “imbalanced” and “underwhelming”. Fast forward 6 months, and Pandya had an IPL trophy in hand. Another 12 months later, they had one of the most dominant group stages in the tournament’s history and found themselves 2 runs short of a successive title defense.
But how? Despite not having big names across the board, Gujarat assembled a squad capable of ticking all the boxes. Take their batting order, for example. In Saha and Shankar, they found two revitalized aggressors through the powerplay and the middle overs. In Gill and Sudharsan, they found two adaptable youngsters who can shift gears as required. In Miller and Pandya, they found big-hitting hybrids who can resurrect momentum after collapses. In Tewatia and Rashid, they found reliable finishers. Their bowling attack was the epitome of flexibility, with diverse options and strong back-ups across the board. It wasn’t surprising, therefore, that they lost the 2023 Final to arguably the most well-defined side in Chennai Super Kings.
Away in South Africa, an underrated Sunrisers Eastern Cape Team defied the odds to win the inaugural SA20 in 2023 in a similar fashion to the Titans, and on the international circuit, the Indian Juggernaut had the most dominant group stage performance ever in the 2023 ODI World Cup. What did all these teams have in common? Role Clarity. One player, one situation, one approach.
With impeccable role clarity comes an almost foolproof template—a definitive brand of sport that brings the team success. In cricket too, upsets were no rarity. The Netherlands Cricket Team were particularly bold in their approach in the 2023 ODI World Cup, bowling spin from both ends in the powerplay and often experimenting with their middle order. Incorporating calculated risks into their playstyle, they developed a template that, despite its flaws, delivered sickening blows to an on-song South Africa and a hurting Bangladesh. On the other end of the spectrum, the Afghanistan Cricket Team played to their existing strengths—bat conservatively and wreck the opposition with their spin attack—that landed killer blows to England, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
So, what does this have to do with football? Cohesion and team chemistry are essentials in football, and developing a template that suits the strengths of players can greatly improve how players complement each other’s playstyles. Besides, it’s so much easier for incoming players to fit into the side if they already have specific roles to play. It’s what enables underdogs to trust their plans and fulfill their potential, and allows radically different approaches to take centerstage. Girona takes pride in their progressive play along the wings, and with Aleix Garcia bridging the left and right flank, they can afford to make daring passes into the box—one of the reasons for their attacking prowess this season. Leverkusen, on the other hand, is a much more calculated side. Despite prioritizing possession and pass accuracy, they still scored 49 goals—the 3rd most in Europe’s Top 5 Leagues. Xabi Alonso’s managerial acumen is put on display by his brilliant usage of Florian Wirtz as a midfielder to pierce the tightest gaps and Frimpong and Grimaldo as wingbacks to fuel their attack.
In addition to chemistry, the underdog teams have outstanding team spirit—which, as we’ve seen, can make or break a team. While India’s phenomenal 2023 Cricket World Cup Campaign can be attributed to an inclusive team spirit, especially with the quality of life improvements within the team environment like rewarding fielding efforts, their 2021 T20 World Cup failures could’ve been due to a lack of spirit. Wholesale changes are never good for a team, and Chelsea is the best example. Despite spending 397.2 Million Pounds in 2023—the most in Europe—Chelsea’s squad never clicked because too many players came in at once while several old faces were dispensed, and the Blues now find themselves in a mid-table tussle. Dutch heavyweights Ajax faced similar struggles this season; a new-look squad bogged down under pressure and sank into the relegation zone before a timely revival brought them back into contention for UCL spots.
It’s 2024, and the prevalence of global leagues is increasing ever-so-rapidly, both in football and cricket. While underdogs may continue to displace traditionally dominant sides from their comfort zones, we fans shouldn’t be surprised to call an unpredictable result an “upset”. There’s more to sports than just strength on paper, and as more teams adapt to the changing dynamic of sports, it’s reasonable to say the rise of underdogs has begun. And it might not stop until the teams we call underdogs now become heavyweights.
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